Michael Parkinson

Director of the European Centre for Urban Affairs, Liverpool John Moores. Terrific, good morning.

Thank you Councillor Crozier for those kind words. It's a great pleasure to be back in Belfast. I have to-ed and frow-ed over the past ten or fifteen years and I agree things are getting better, so you are going in the right direction, and that's a very important thing to say. Thanks for the invitation. There are a number of people I would like to thank. Councillor Crozier for being so supportive, the Chief Executive who was supportive. In particular Marie-Thérèse McGivern whose brainchild this was, but also her colleagues Patricia Elliott and Kevin Heaney and our own colleague Mary Hutchins, who did a lot of the work, and also many of the people in this room who agreed to be interviewed by me, so I thank you all for that.

Secondly, I want to congratulate Belfast City Council for doing this. I think this is a brave initiative. My report is not a whitewash. My report is warts and all and they didn't try and stop that, and I think it is brave. I think it is important that we are honest with ourselves about where we are, where we've been and where we want to go, and they were good on that. That said, I was reluctant to do it for a number of reasons. I live and work in and love Liverpool and know a lot about it and I don't like outsiders coming in to tell me what to do with the place, and I was kind of reluctant to come here and take a quick look and report back, but I thought I would do it.

Secondly, I have to say I probably have more questions than answers for you. I think my job in a sense is to raise those issues. I think it's your job to work them out. I can't deal with that, and I'm absolutely confident, and I know absolutely everybody in this room knows a lot more about Belfast than I do, I know that. I probably know about one percent of what you know about Belfast so I confess to all of that, so you are seeing a kind of someone who is fairly naked in the conference chamber this morning.

I think what I have done really is turn the mirror to yourself. If anything I say in the second half of my talk about where Belfast currently is, everything I will say was essentially said to me by people mainly in this room, and if it seems critical I think it's self critical in the best sense, and in a way I regard myself as essentially the kind of critical friend.

Basically I'm a Scouser and Liverpool has turned itself around in the last ten years, but Marie-Thérèse asked me to do this because she said "I heard you say ten years ago in Liverpool when nobody else would say it, this place is going to make it, and it has". In a sense someone who lives in and loves Liverpool talking to a place which is very similar in terms of challenges and opportunities, complicated history, that actually is much better than people outside the place think, and actually is much better than many people inside the city think, so there is a lot to go on. As I say my job really today is to start the conversation. It is for you to carry it on. I can't do that.

Okay.

I'm told it's complicated but if I press this button things will move.

They do.

That's the title of my talk. As Councillor Crozier said I have been working with British Government for the last year or so trying to work out where UK cities stand in comparison with other successful cities, and I imported Belfast into that analysis. So I'm going to talk partly about Europe, partly about UK and finally about Belfast.

Alright, six questions. This is a fairly longish talk and I'm going to talk quickly. What we did and why, what's happening to European cities, how competitive is Belfast in Europe, how competitive is Belfast in Northern Ireland, what culture messages in the UK, and finally what culture messages in Belfast.

What we did.

Basically over the past year looking at how Belfast and the core cities in the UK compare with really successful cities in Europe. This project in Belfast and UK is driven by a series of concerns about policy makers that UK Cities don't punch their weight in the national economy, that they are falling behind London, that they lack the powers, resources and responsibilities need to improve and they are lagging behind European cities. I set out to see is that true, if so, why, and if yes, what can we do about it.

Just to remind ourselves.

Councillor Crozier and Lord Mayor talked about cities. Cities are back. For twenty years they were basket cases, liabilities, now Government has realised they are the drivers of regional and national economy. Cities now play in global not national markets, national hierarchies, there are growing networks between cities. I think you are one of the best networked cities for provincial cities. There is also growing competition.

As the Lord Mayor said there is fierce global competition, and two other things are blindingly obvious to any of us who work or live in cities, (a) they're getting better. They have a huge economic successes and potentials, and (b) many parts and many people are not sharing in that economic success. They are increasingly divided. Belfast is; it's not unique.

What's driving it? Globalisation, the Lord Mayor's mentioned it. Technological restructuring, economic restructuring - Porsche, hamburger economy, divided global markets - increasing competition between places and Welfare State restructuring which has made many communities more vulnerable than they were, right across Europe for the last ten years.

The consequence of all this, I think, is cities actually matter more not less. In this changing globalising competitive difficult world Belfast will become a more significant player, not less, believe me.

Secondly, all European governments believe this. Really smart ones are targeting their cities, whether it's France, whether it's the Finns, whether it's the Danes, whether it's the Dutch. They see cities as drivers and they have policies to make those cities drive their economies quicker. Further, Europe is really important, new spaces, new opportunities, new entrepreneurism, it's changing, new hierarchies, there are winners and losers, and the old winners are not the new winners necessarily. I will come on to that later.

At the end of it all I think there is a huge increased concern with urban competitiveness. The policy general in the UK switched dramatically in the last five years. I have quite involved. Five years ago, ten years ago, we talked about neighbourhoods, social exclusion, those are terribly important issues but I think what we have to do to address those issues is to think about urban competitiveness.

Okay, how competitive is Belfast in Europe? First let me give you a definition of what competitive is. It is the ability to attract and maintain firms with stable rising market shares and activities, that's the firm bit, but maintaining stable or increasing standards of living for those who participate in it, that's the people bit. It's not simply about the generation of cash; it's the spreading of cash.

Secondly, competitiveness is not competition. [With] competition [a win for] Belfast [means] another place loses. Competitiveness is not like that. We can all sharpen our act. We can raise the game of the UK Urban System plc, and thirdly, competitiveness is not urban renaissance. Urban renaissance is [about] prestige projects, waterfront projects and all of that. That's good but it's not competitiveness. That's the Barcelona model. Competitiveness is high skilled, diverse economies. It's a tougher act. You can start with renaissance but competitiveness is a long haul.

What are drivers of competitiveness? There are six of them I think, and I'm going to give you some data on where you stand in a bit.

Innovation in products and processes.

Diversity - I don't believe in [specialisation]- don't keep your eggs in one basket, the best cities don't.

Third, a high skilled workforce - blindingly obvious.

Fourth, connectivity, I mean external/internal, trains and planes and ICT, yes but cultural internationalism.

Really successful cities in Europe, whether it's Rotterdam or Barcelona, have foreign policies. They know where their markets are. They know where their good ideas are and they don't regard it is a waste of time and money to find out what their competitors are doing. It means being open in their outlook, not being closed.

And two other things, quality of life increasingly important, and soft location factors, and the final one which I am going to talk about quite a lot at the end of this talk, I call it strategic capacity, the ability to deliver long term development.

I could have called it politics of policy making, and I'm going to come to that. I'm going to ask in a sense how do you do it. I take a series of measures, GDP per capita, innovation score-cards, the population, I won't run through them. I'm going to show you a whole series of pictures about where I think British English cities stand and where Belfast stands in relationship to some of the really successful places.

Before I start both our opening speakers made the point Belfast is changing. Belfast is improving. This is not meant to be a bad news story. This is not meant to be pessimistic, it is meant to be realistic, and all UK cities, after their difficulties in the eighties and nineties, have improved. Since 1997 unemployment down, crime down, population loss down, employment up, wages up, house prices up, education standards up, air passengers up. There is a lot to go on, so this is not a doom and gloom story, but we do need I think to be realistic of where we stand.

A health warning as well. Europe is big and complex and is not a single place.

Secondly, politics are tricky, because it works there and it doesn't work here. You have to find another solution.

Thirdly, exceptions to the rules.

Fourthly, measuring comparisons is hard. Getting the data and the boundaries is tricky. People will tell me here today, Michael those figures aren't right, and I say they are probably not, I don't really know. It's the big picture I think you want to draw on.

Finally, this is a snapshot of a sample - not one movie of the whole universe and it's a long report and a very short talk.

So what's the big picture?

[This is] what the Financial Times said. The Financial Times led with my report to the British Government a couple of months ago, saying 'UK Cities left behind by rivals in Europe'. I think that was not unfair but a tough assessment, probably a better headline I think than Belfast Telegraph gave me on Monday which was 'red tape strangling city says Professor'. I'm not sure that was a very good line, but what's the story?

I'm going to show you a set of stuff on how you're doing. You don't have to read these in detail. You've got the report. If you're on the left-hand side its good, if you're on the right-hand side it isn't so good.

What that is, telling you [is] what is the GDP per capita of cities? Top European cities are on the left hand side, Frankfurt, Munich, Stuttgart. A lot of English cities are up the right hand side. Some really successful cities are two or three times wealthier than our cities. But strangely enough Belfast is actually leading the UK cities. It has a higher GDP per capita than most core cities. This is not a poor place. There are reasons for that, but it's not a poor place.

Secondly, what explains it? I said innovation is important. We measure innovation by people, universities, life-long learning, investment in patents, investment in R&D and we score it up. The really successful cities which have got higher GDP - that are up there on the left hand side - also are innovative. Belfast's problem, it is right down at the bottom. It is one of the least innovative cities in the UK and in my European sample. It is a big challenge.

Thirdly, I said [a] skilled workforce is terribly important. UK cities lag behind their European competitors. We are not doing terribly well. Belfast has two things. It has highest percentage of graduates in many UK cities. It also has the highest percentage of workforce within qualifications of all UK cities. You have a dilemma there you got to work on.

Size matters.

The really successful cities in Europe tend to be big. And this is a pattern that is beginning to form. Barcelona, Frankfurt, Munich, Stuttgart. They are wealthy, they are innovative, they are big. A lot of UK cities are relatively small and Belfast is a relatively small city. That is something that you can think about.

Not only that but you are losing population. The successful European cities are gaining population. Most UK cities are still losing population, at a slower rate, and Belfast struggles with that as well. It's not simply the number of people there; it's the kind of people that live there. That is a measure of dependency. People are too young or too old to be in the labour force. Again the really successful cities on the left hand side are European. The less successful cities on the right hand side are English, and I have to say that Belfast actually has the most dependent population of all UK core cities.

People say you can't achieve competitiveness and cohesion. You can, the really successful cities in Europe, are not only the richest, they have the lowest unemployment rates. UK cities are some of the poorest and have some of the highest unemployment rates. Belfast however isn't one of the cities with the highest unemployment rates; it has in fact an unemployment rate lower than its peers in the UK, Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield, Birmingham. Actually it is performing relatively well.

Connectivity matters. If I said, two things drove modern economies - [they are] universities and airports. Universities for brains, airports for getting people, goods and services in and out. The rich cities are innovative, highly skilled workforce, big, they are well connected. Good airports. Belfast as we see is along with UK cities does not have good access to Europe. It's improving but so far it doesn't and I think it is an important challenge.

Connectivity, I've measured broadband. How wired up is a city? Belfast isn't on that. None of the UK cities are on that. We are lagging behind. The private sector is very important. What they think matters, matters.

Healey and Baker for twenty years had been looking at where business people want to invest. And they ranked them, top 30. That is the ranking of Healey and Baker, London, Paris lead obviously but there is one significant thing about that table. There is only one English city that is in the top 30 for the private sector to invest, it's Manchester. I don't think that it is insignificant that it has a major airport. But there is no other English city that is in the top 30. The other thing to notice about that table if you can see it is that the hierarchy is fairly stable. The places which were leading in 1990 are leading in 2002. But some places have moved up. Helsinki moved in, Barcelona moved up, Madrid moved up. In other words, it isn't easy but it is possible to improve your position. Some other places have done it. So this is not a counsel of despair.

And if you ask, what the private sector is really interested in, how it ranks. It again ranks top 30 cities along three things; qualifications of staff, access to markets [and] transport links. These are the kinds of factors I was examining before. [B]asically, give or take, there is a great parallel between the ways the private sector assess cities in Europe as a place to invest and the way in which they rate English cities. And the kind of way I have been assessing. So there is a kind of common sense agreement, I think, [about] where we stand and I don't think we should worry about the fine print, we should recognise that's true.

If that's Belfast in Europe then where does Belfast stand in Northern Ireland? I think two things became very apparent to me. I started by saying that cities drive regions and national economies. And I think that it is quite clear that Belfast drives the metropolitan and regional economy. And I don't think that fact is recognised enough. Lip service is paid to it in many documents but I don't think we have recognised it.

You will know the UK government is dramatically changing its urban policy in the last year. The whole Northern Wave, the whole regional agenda. We are trying to focus on the relationship between cities and regions and how they complement not [how they] contradict. And you have got to focus on that.

And the second, blindingly obvious, thing is that Belfast has many continuing social problems that you have to address. I'll run through some data - it's going to be obvious to you.

Distribution of population. Belfast has a very large percentage of the population of the metropolitan area. It's big. Secondly, look at valued added. Belfast adds a very large valued added to the metropolitan area. It's almost over 40% of the Northern Irish and its 30% of Belfast itself. If you look at GVA per capita, Belfast on the left has a very high GVA per capita. Higher than the UK, higher than the rest of Northern Ireland. Belfast is actually a job-generator. It concentrates jobs and wealth and I don't think it is significantly recognised. If you look at the percentage of investment, through IDB in recent years, you can see the proportion of investment that goes into Belfast. It varies from time to time but it is huge.

This is the economic attractive engine. If you look at employment, it again Belfast provides, generates 60% of jobs in the metropolitan area. Which is one reason why its GVA is so high. So really I think one has to recognise that this is a very important driver, and ask the question. are we doing enough to capitalise upon it?

Over to you.

On the other hand, it has a whole series of potential problems. Here we are looking at qualifications of the workforce. There we begin to see that in relationship to other bits of metropolitan area Belfast city lags. It has lower qualifications. If you look at the growth of population in the Belfast metropolitan area, it has grown a fraction in the last decade - 1%. Every part of the metropolitan area has grown, except for Belfast city which is losing population. I think that it is a challenge. If you look at unemployment in the Belfast metropolitan area, 6 out of 10 unemployed people are in Belfast city. It is a challenge.

If you look at the unemployment rate overall, Belfast city has a much higher unemployment rate than other parts of the metropolitan area. So we are seeing a kind of divided city. Highly qualified workforce, low qualified workforce. Very high GVA, lots of social problems. Reconciling those two is a challenge.

I made the point earlier, a lot of European cities, [that] are the most successful economically, have also been able to address their social problems most successfully. It has been difficult in England, for Labour politicians to adopt what I call the 'economic competitiveness of gender', but we are beginning to do so and I think in a sense we need to ask have we adopted it here?

And finally - [the] percentage of people in receipt of income support; very high proportions again in Belfast city itself. The bottom line for Belfast, there is bad news and good news. I think this is essentially a tale of missed opportunities rather than failure, the bad news is that you are not innovative enough, too many workers are not qualified, you are not well enough connected to the mainland, virtually or physically. But the good news is that GDP is by no sense the worst, it's a rich place.

Unemployment is not the worst. You have very many highly qualified workers. Quality of life in this city is very good for some. As someone told me you do have the most successful BMW franchise in the UK here. And that has got to be paid for. And that's a lot to do with public sector employment.

And two other things, I think the city drives the region [and this] is not recognise[d] and I think there is a terrific renaissance of the centre city going on, which perhaps is not yet recognised. And I think that is something that you can build upon, which I will come onto in a moment.

To do better, I think fairly obvious[ly] you [have] got to grow the population and you have certainly got to work with the population of the bigger metropolitan Belfast area. You know size really matters; Belfast city on its own is too small.

If you have got the least qualified workforce in the UK, it's clearly got to do with the performance of schools. It has to be addressed and that's down to you. You have got to get better international connections, real and virtual. You have got to become more entrepreneurial and less risk adverse, more innovative. You have got to improve the quality of life for a potentially mobile workforce, so that clever people want to come here, and when they come here they want to stay here. They are all long-term things; keep pedalling the bike. I'll come onto some short-term opportunities as well.

OK, my last two sections. I probably have seven or eight minutes.

What are the policy messages for the UK? The fact is our cities are in the wrong league. We are bottom of Nationwide not the Premiership. Because when you look at European cities, and compare them with Asia [and] North America, we lack terribly. That's the scale of the challenge that we face.

Secondly, lack of competitiveness is a national problem in the UK. Michael Porter's recent work demonstrates this. We don't invest in infrastructure, hard and soft. We have big regional inequalities. We have very few flexible mechanisms. But it is a bigger urban problem.

That plots the GDP of cities, against their national economies and, very simply, what it says is the really successful cities - Frankfurt, Munich, Stuttgart, Lyon, Amsterdam, Helsinki - they lead their national economy. They outperform their national GDP. That's on the left hand side. On the right hand side. English cities under perform - they drag the national economy down.

If we are going to make our national economy perform better [we] have got to improve the performance of our cities. And we have got to get the performance of Northern Ireland up. I think we are going to have to improve the performance of Belfast.

Some of the messages - the hierarchy is stable but cities can improve. It is possible. You can change your position. Barcelona did, Madrid did, Helsinki did.

Helsinki ten years ago was a basket case. 1992 I went there. 70% unemployment, Soviet Union [had only recently] collapsed. Now it is the most innovative city in Europe. It can be done. It is a small country. It can be done.

Secondly, cities really matter to national performance; they drive the national economy.

Thirdly, you can pursue economic success and social inclusion at the same time. [They are] not mutually exclusive.

Fourthly, national policies and regional policies matter for cities. These big European cities benefited [from] national policies, they are not constrained by national policies. So national policies matter, European cities have more powers and resources than English cities, and certainly a lot more powers and resources than Belfast city. They also think about the urban system plc. It's not Manchester against Liverpool against Sheffield. It's how they fit together and grow the pie. It's not Belfast against Londonderry or whatever. You are all in this together. But you have to recognise where the real strength lies.

Grown-up government matters. National policy makers have to let go, treat local people as grown-ups. Let them flourish, let them make their mistakes. And size matters. Big places matter. back the big places.

Cities can help themselves; don't sit around waiting for someone else to do it. The really smart places got there act together. Barcelona got its act together. Smart people, very clever. And they are now doing their second act. First act was renaissance. Second act is competitiveness. People really make a difference. In Munich a mayor, a vice chancellor, a leading businessman, they make a difference. The people who fix Belfast are probably sitting in this room. probably.

A couple of other things really; and I am going to come on finally to Belfast itself. Cities and regions - for too long in the UK we have seen them as kind of competitors and they are not. Regional performance [and] urban performance are linked. Cities drive regions and we need to align our policies to do that. And we need to recognise [that] if regional performance depends upon city performance, we have got to boost city performance. And I think they are all national policy messages for the Blair government and I think there are some national policy messages for over here.

And finally on Belfast itself. I said [before that] all [of] the things I am now going to say were said to me. I didn't invent them. And if you didn't say them then the person next to you did say them. I made the point that [there are] six drivers of success.

The final driver is what I call strategic decision making capacity. Or 'politics of government'. I made the point that a lot of place have changed their performance because they have got their act together. I'm using short-hand here.

In other words there is a relationship, and the OECD constantly said, between the way a place is governed and the way an economy performs. There is a relationship. It's not the only thing, but the way a place is governed can make it better or worse.

I lived in a city, and wrote a book about a city, which politics made a difficult economic problem a catastrophe, for 20 years in Liverpool. And then we stopped doing in and thought, we'll get our act together.

How does Belfast compare? Belfast is not a well governed city.

My judgement - [there are] far too many plans. Probably 57 of them, not enough delivery. Too many government departments, six is probably enough. Eleven is probably too many - it makes decision making difficult. Too many local authorise - 126 or whatever it is - is simply inappropriate to a place this scale.

And it's not what is happening in the rest of Europe.

[Belfast] City Council, I was amazed [has] very few responsibilities, very few powers, very few resources.

Seems to me strange. Too many quangos, too little accountability, I can't understand the place. Turf, territory and conflict. You can't agree. You can't agree that Belfast really drives the region. And everyone says: 'well, place X has got to get its fair share.'

I've been down the south. Dublin against the rest, Belfast against Londonderry, you have to realise that Belfast drives the region. Secondly you can't agree in Belfast Metropolitan Area. There's too much competition to get away from Belfast and the Metropolitan area.

That's got to be sorted out and thirdly you can't agree that a central city matters. Nobody owns the central city; no community thinks [that] it's his. And I think it is a fantastic opportunity which is being missed. You have too many partnerships. [We] have them in Liverpool, we had them in Liverpool. European funded [and are] valuable, but they fragment.

Frankly, sorry, there is too little trust, enormously too little trust. Little trust between national and local decision makers.

That's got to change.

Absolutely got to change.

All qualified people. All talented people. But it's got to change and improve. The planning process is too slow. The public, private sector balance is wrong. It is a public sector city, it needs to change. There's too little risk taking. And in a line which reminds me of my city 10 years ago "Frozen attitudes, frozen institutions".

It doesn't exactly feel like 1950s Isle of Man, but it feels an awful lot like it for me because I lived there. And in a sense it is really about people's hearts and minds and cultures and values. All that stuff. You don't need a professor to tell you this. You know it all.

Breaking the mould. That's all doom and gloom. I've said you are far better than many people in the UK think. You are far better than many of you here think. You have some problems. You need to find some early wins. You need to find some gains. You need to build on what you have got going. What have you got going?

I said it in Liverpool ten years ago. The centre city is the economic driver for the city which drives the metropolitan area which drives the region. And it's terrific. There is a renaissance going on. There is investment. There's quality; there's confidence. Part of it is still no good but it's dramatically changing. It's a major economic driver of the city and region. It is a lever to increase competitiveness and possible trust and capacity. But currently there is no single focus, no single champion for the city centre.

In the UK and England, the local authority, my local authority. Liverpool will be leading on it. Here I think there is a gap and here I think there is an opportunity. If one can find a way of saying, let's work on one thing which could work in the next five years, what might it be? And I just asked the question, would some sort of public, private, city centre regeneration agency be able to build on the progress? Something where you could talk about success and delivery and seeing it works?

When I raised the question people said, "ahh. another level of bureaucracy. No good. Another partnership, we are drowning in them. It won't be accountable; it will exclude communities, politicians and local authority".

But the same people [civil servants] said, "Yeah actually. There is something in it".

Local government offices and elected members said, "Yeah...there could be something in it".

And the wider public. So I think in a sense that might be one thing you could work on. Not the only thing. The long-term thing is economic diversity, innovation, skilled workforce, quality of life, connectivity. But strategic decision making capacity. This could be win-win.

Is the time right? I think so. The review of public administration surely should say something about all of these matters and have fewer more powerful local authorise. It's changing.

Secondly, one of the lead players in the city centre, the central city, Laganside Development Corporation is time limited and won't be around forever. Something will have to look after that.

Thirdly, [the loss of] Objective One [status] means, changes. [fewer] resources; partnerships may not be there in the future.

Fourthly, and saying there is lack of trust, many senior civil servants said to me Michael "I don't think I should be running this city. I think the people of Belfast should be running this city. I'd like to find a way in which that could happen. I'd like to widen the decision making process"

[So] this could be one possibility. Other things, the reputation of [Belfast] City Council I think has significantly improved in recent years and people have said to me it's improved and is happening. And I think there is a lot to go on. So I think there is really a lot to go on and you could work upon.

Will it work? Well models back in favour in England were setting up development corporations [and] regeneration companies. Different places, different ways, as a way of tackling specific challenges. I think the time and place is right. I think there are some potential short-term gains. There is a lot more going to happen in this central city in the next five years.

Capitalise it and exploit it. I think the process of talking in a grown up way about the centre city could lead to a better dialogue and conversation between partners and increase trust, where it is now lacking. And I think it could be a sense of long-term improvement.

And finally, I would say you will hear from Bob Kerslake of Sheffield tonight. All the English core cities have significantly improved their performance in the past five, six, seven years. It is possible and it is happening, even if from a low base.

Secondly my own city Liverpool has reinvented itself. When I said ten years ago that Liverpool would rise again, I'm not sure I meant it. But now it has dramatically changed itself. Belfast to me seems like Liverpool a decade ago. Something is about to happen. You can cease the time and make it happen more, or you could walk away. And if Liverpool can reinvent itself I think Belfast can. So finally, I think the prize is great. It is achievable but as we say in Liverpool "It's down to you. not to me" and I look forward to your conversation today.

Thank you.

(Applause)